The UFC returns to the city where it all began on Saturday night, when UFC 150 emanates LIVE from the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The UFC 150 fight card is headlined by the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship rematch between new champion Benson "Smooth" Henderson and former champ Frankie "The Answer" Edgar, with a pair of former No. 1 contenders highlighting the undercard. Here's SWR's take on what to expect on Saturday night.
Main Event, UFC Lightweight Championship: Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar
If there's one thing that's been notable about Edgar over the last couple of years, it's been his ability to improve between fights, and that should happen again here. There were a few things that "Bendo" did in the first encounter between these fighters that Edgar should adjust to the second time around, particularly his use of a standing kimura to force Edgar out of grappling situations, and the damage that Henderson was able to do with his kicks. The other factor to consider is the altitude in Denver, which could play in Edgar's favor. Henderson has great conditioning, but he's also a larger athlete than Edgar, a supremely conditioned athlete in his own right. The fact that Edgar will be carrying around less weight in the fourth and fifth rounds should work in his favor.
The big key for Edgar may be avoiding a huge score like the upkick that Henderson landed in the second round at UFC 144 in February. In terms of scoring, February's fight was close, but when it was over, there's no doubt that Edgar looked like the guy who lost the fight. A big part of that was the kick that left blood gushing from his nose. Avoiding a move like that will undoubtedly help if the fight goes to the judges' scorecards. In the end, that's going to be key, because we don't like Edgar's chances of stopping Henderson based on what we saw in February. Edgar can win, but we like Henderson to retain by decision.
Co-Main Event, Lightweights: Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
The fact that the "Cowboy" and "Young Assassin" were former training partners at Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico adds some extra intrigue here, as does the fact that Denver native Cerrone is the hometown boy. The former is more likely to have an impact on the fight, though (although Cerrone should be more comfortable at altitude).
Cerrone is the more consistent fighter, and his four career losses have come at the hands of the current UFC Lightweight Champion (Henderson), the No. 1 contender to the winner of Saturday's main event (Nick Diaz) and a former WEC champion (Jamie Varner). On paper, Cerrone wins this fight, but until the fighters get into the Octagon, we won't know if there's something Guillard knows that the rest of us don't. The burden of proof, however, is on the "Young Assassin." Cerrone's the more accomplished fighter, the more comfortable fighter in Denver, and he has better coaching. Don't count Guillard out, but based on the fact that Cerrone wins largely by submission and Guillard usually loses by submission, we'll say "Cowboy" by submission in the second round.
Middleweights: Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman
Shields is returning to middleweight after an uninspiring 2-2 run at welterweight, but he could be better without having to cut as much weight. That's likely his hope, particularly with Cesar Gracie teammate Nick Diaz likely to challenge for the UFC Welterweight Championship once his suspension is up. Earlier in the week, we suggested Shields as a possible challenger for Anderson Silva if all goes well here, and we think it will. Herman is a middle-tier middleweight, and Shields is a former Strikeforce champion at 185. Shields has shown in the last year that he's susceptible to a knockout blow on the feet, but we don't see this fight spending much time there. Shields by decision.
Middleweights: Yushin Okami vs. Buddy Roberts
Roberts is a talented prospect out of the Jackson Camp, but he's out of his depth here, going from a win over Caio Magalhaes in his UFC debut to a battle with a former No. 1 contender in Yushin "Thunder" Okami. Okami is coming off of back-to-back TKO losses, but Roberts hasn't won a fight by TKO in more than two and a half years. There's a big difference between stopping Alijah Reni and stopping Yushin Okami, and we expect Roberts to find that out the hard way. Okami's wrestling is going to be too good for a traditional Jackson-inspired attack, which means at some point, Roberts is going to have to throw caution to the wind and go for it. When he does, we like Okami to strike. "Thunder" by third-round TKO.
Featherweights: Justin Lawrence vs. Max Holloway
These are two largely unproven commodities at featherweight, with the 20-year-old Holloway the youngest fighter currently on the UFC roster. He made a short-notice debut against Dustin Poirier and got submitted, then bounced back with a win over Pat Schilling in June. Lawrence, meanwhile, debuted with a knockout of John Cofer back in June, and now will look to add to his unbeaten record. There's not much of a body of work to judge on with these guys, but we'll go with Lawrence by submission in the second round.
