Shea Weber will make $14 million this season playing for the Nashville Predators, but he'll make almost as much before he even steps on the ice.
By matching the Philadelphia Flyers' offer sheet to their star defenseman and team captain on Tuesday afternoon, the Predators committed to pay Weber a $13 million signing bonus in each of the next four seasons in addition to his $14 million salary in those years, plus $8 million on top of his $12 million salary in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 campaigns. All told, the Predators aren't just on the hook for $110 million over the next 14 years, they're on the hook for $148 million in the next six (even while less than $7.9 million per year counts against the salary cap).
It's the kind of blockbuster frontloaded contract that Nashville general manager David Poile has long maintained his team couldn't afford to sign, but the Philadelphia Flyers left him and Predators ownership no other choice.
So, here Poile is on Tuesday afternoon, along with chairman Tom Cigarran and CEO Jeff Cogen, announcing that the team has matched the Flyers' offer sheet and kept Weber in Nashville.
But for how long?
According to the Predators' statement, their decision to match the Flyers' offer sheet ensures "that the Predators' captain will remain with the franchise for the next 14 years." Team management also claims that before making this decision, the Predators asked themselves, among other questions, whether Weber was "the individual that this franchise wanted to lead our team, a team that would compete for the Stanley Cup every year, for the next 14 years?"
According to the Predators, the answer was "yes." SWR isn't so sure.
According to their statement, the Predators also asked themselves whether matching the offer sheet was in their long-term interests, and whether a failure to match the offer would send a negative message to current and future players, sponsors and fans about how far the team would go to protect their best players. The Predators say the answer is "Yes" on both counts, and SWR agrees. Having already lost Ryan Suter to the Minnesota Wild on a big money long-term deal, Nashville simply could not afford to let Weber go and receive only four first-round draft picks as compensation. However, SWR is not yet convinced that Weber will remain with the Predators much longer than they are required to keep him under NHL rules.
Weber is more than a stud defenseman and a three-time all-star for the Predators. For the last two seasons, he's been their captain. While the Predators clearly needed to keep him, at least in the short term, there's a serious question as to whether it's in the long-term interest of the Predators to have a leader, on the ice and in the locker room, who tried to walk out on the team. This isn't to say, of course, that Weber automatically lost the locker room by signing Philadelphia's offer sheet, but it isn't a given that everything will be hunky dory, either.
And then, of course, there is the financial component. The Predators have traditionally been the kind of team that succeeds by drafting wisely and developing talent from within. They're not the kind of team that signs blockbuster front-loaded contracts with superstar players. The Flyers made them do it, but that doesn't mean that the Predators will accept the consequences any longer than they have to.
On Monday, SWR asked a simple question: why give up Weber this year and try to make a trade with just one team when you can wait a year and try to make a trade with multiple teams? While the Predators are making noise now about not giving Weber up at all, we'll believe it when we see it.
A press conference to discuss the team's decision is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon at Bridgestone Arena. Cigarran, Poile and Cogen will be there. Weber won't.
Will that be a sign of things to come? We'll see in a year or two.
