Four days after the hockey world learned that Shea Weber had signed an offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers, the Nashville Predators are still on the clock.
Nashville has until Wednesday night at 11:30 p.m. ET to decide whether to match the 14-year, $110 million offer from Philadelphia or allow their captain to go in exchange for four first-round picks. According to reports, Nashville general manager David Poile has been in talks with his Philadelphia counterpart, Paul Holmgren, trying to arrange some sort of trade for Weber.
Whether or not Nashville and Philadelphia can come to an agreement remains to be seen, but the one thing that Poile cannot do is accept the four first-round picks as compensation for the loss of Weber.
Make no mistake: Poile and his staff in Nashville have shown that they know what to do with draft picks. From top picks who matured into stars like Weber and Ryan Suter to late-round gems like Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist and (of course) Vezina Trophy finalist Pekka Rinne, Nashville has done well in the draft, and used that success and the masterful coaching of Barry Trotz to build a contending franchise in an unlikely market. Now, however, the future of the franchise is in question, as Suter has already departed for greener pastures with the Minnesota Wild and Weber is on the verge of following him out the door.
Of course, unlike Suter, whose departure brought the Predators nothing in return, Weber's departure would give Nashville four additional first-round draft picks over the next five years. That's certainly something, but the simple fact is that all it does for Nashville is start the process over. It's hardly a guarantee that Nashville will use those picks to bring in four future NHL regulars - Ryan Parent and Chet Pickard stand as proof that Nashville is hardly infallible when it comes to draft busts - and even if they do, what's the likelihood that those players will stick around when they become free agents?
If Nashville is going to move forward from this scenario with a plan that's good for the long-term health of the franchise, then it should probably start with matching Philadelphia's offer sheet. While the kind of contract that Weber signed doesn't make long-term sense for the Predators, Nashville would be able to put him on the trade market in a year, and eventually get better value for the three-time All-Star than the draft picks Philadelphia would give up as things currently stand.
In a sense, the predicament Nashville faces with Weber is not unlike the situation the Columbus Blue Jackets faced in their efforts to trade Rick. Scott Howson was criticized widely for being too demanding in his trade expectations for the high-scoring winger, and those are fair criticisms, particularly since they may have cost him in the end. However, Howson's job is to make a deal that makes his team better, and he was right to say that he'll wait to get the right deal done (even if that isn't what he wound up doing). By the same token, Poile's duty is to put his team in as strong a position as possible, and that can best be accomplished by signing Weber, benefiting from his services in 2012-13, and then getting maximum value for him next summer.
Poile has made it clear that front-loaded contracts don't make sense for Nashville, but for one year, the Predators can live with it. As things currently stand, the Predators have spent just under $41 million toward the salary cap for next season, the least of any team in the NHL and far less than last year's NHL payroll of $52,188,068. They can certainly afford Weber's salary for 2012-13, even if it amounts to significantly more than his $7.8 million salary cap hit. After the season, they can put Weber on the market and get a package of players, picks and/or prospects that can help the team in both the present and the future.
Given that Columbus' apparent haul for Nash isn't exactly drawing rave reviews around the NHL, this approach certainly has a risky feel to it. However, if Nashville is going to be forced to start over and rebuild without Suter and Weber, it makes sense to delay rebuilding for one more year and get the best package possible to rebuild with.
