UFC on FUEL TV 4 Fight Card Preview: Predictions and Analysis for Muñoz vs. Weidman

Jul 11, 2012 12:17 PM EDT
Filipino Wrecking Machine
Mark Muñoz (top) faces a tough challenge on Wednesday night in the undefeated Chris Weidman"

Just days after defeating Chael Sonnen to retain the UFC Middleweight Championship, Anderson Silva may learn the identity of his next challenge on Wednesday night, when Mark Muñoz battles Chris Weidman in the main event of UFC on Fuel TV 4, set for 8 p.m. ET at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California.

It's a full night of fights on Fuel, with six bouts on the main card (in addition to the five-fight preliminary card on Facebook), and while the stakes may not be as high for all the fighters as they are for the main eventers - Muñoz could put himself into title contention with a win over the undefeated Weidman - there's lots of great action and intriguing matchup. Here's what to expect.

MAIN EVENT, Middleweights: Mark Muñoz vs. Chris Weidman

The "All-American" has used his willingness to step up on short notice to build his UFC career in a hurry, as three of his four UFC bouts have seen him come in late as an injury replacement, only to score the win in impressive fashion. The last of these, a decision victory over former No. 1 contender Demian Maia in January, saw Weidman coast to the victory in the third round, but given that Weidman was fighting on less than two weeks' notice, the fact that he was able to defeat Maia at all was impressive. Now, the Matt Serra/Ray Longo disciple gets a main-even bout with the man who opened the door for him.

Muñoz was supposed to face Sonnen in January for the No. 1 contender's spot, but his injury left Sonnen to fight Michael Bisping, while Weidman stepped up to face Bisping's original opponent, Maia. A healthy Muñoz is ready to go and riding a four-fight win streak of his own, with his only loss at middleweight being a split decision against former top contender Yushin Okami.

Weidman has done so well for himself fighting on short notice that the idea of him fighting with a full training camp under his belt is intriguing, and it's understandable that Weidman is the betting favorite. At the same time, however, Muñoz is in a different class than Alessio Sakara, Jesse Bongfeldt, Tom Lawlor and even Maia. Muñoz brings a blend of elite level wrestling and heavy hands that's unlike anything Weidman has faced to this point, and he's proven that he can withstand the attacks of other accomplished wrestlers (C.B. Dollaway and Aaron Simpson come to mind). This is a fight that can go either way, but SWR likes Muñoz to stop Weidman in his tracks via TKO.

CO-MAIN EVENT: Light Heavyweights: James Te-Huna vs. Joey Beltran

Beltran gets a quick return to the UFC after cutting down from heavyweight and picking up a win on the independent circuit. He replaces Brandon Vera, who was summoned to the main event of UFC on FOX 4 in one of many bout changes to take place during the UFC's summer of injuries. Te-Huna has been a moderate success since coming to the UFC, posting a 3-1 record, but hasn't done enough to be installed as such a massive favorite over "The Mexicutioner."

Beltran, like Te Huna, benefits from both an iron chin and heavy hands, setting the stage for what should be a wild brawl on Wednesday night. Under those circumstances, this fight should be too close to call, although it will end decisively for someone. We'll go against the favorite again and call Beltran by third-round knockout.

Welterweights: Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson

 

This was supposed to be Simpson making his welterweight debut against former No. 1 contender Jon Fitch, but Fitch pulled out with an injury, so instead we get Robertson, an 11-1 prospect who lost to Mike Pierce in his lone UFC appearance.

Robertson is a tough customer, with three of his seven submission victories coming when his opponent tapped out due to strikes (he also has two armbars, a kneebar and a keylock on his résumé). Simpson, however, is a different breed of fighter, with an All-American wrestling background and a track record of success at a higher weight class. Simpson isn't much of a fight finisher, but that might change at the lighter weight class. For now, though, let's keep it simple and say Simpson by decision.

Middleweghts: Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

Vemola was victorious in his middleweight debut in May, as the one-time heavyweight stopped Mike Massenzio with a rear-naked choke. Now, the London-based Czech gets a fellow international veteran in Carmont, a French fighter who trains with Georges St-Pierre at Tristar Gym in Montreal. Carmont has looked good in his two previous UFC appearances, and Tristar coach Firas Zahabi always seems to have a strong game plan. Look for Carmont to make it work against Vemola.

Bantamweights: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

Dillashaw scored a unanimous decision over Walel Watson in his first fight since losing to John Dodson in the 135-pound finals of The Ultimate Fighter. Now, the Team Alpha Male fighter is matched up against the Englishman Lee, who scored the Submission of the Night against Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144 to bounce back from a UFC debut loss against Chris Cariaso.

Lee, like many other U.K.-based fighters, struggles against top wrestlers, with just 40 percent takedown defense in the UFC. That could be a big problem against Dillashaw, a former All-Pac-10 wrestler at Cal State Fullerton. Look for Dillashaw to control this one on the mat, working his way to a decision victory.

Lightweights: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

A possible contender for Fight of the Night, the matchup of Brazilian and Nigerian lightweights is a classic grappler vs. striker affair. Both fighters have turned in memorable performances in the cage, and the opener is an intriguing battle that probably doesn't mean much in terms of the overall lightweight pecking order, but will undoubtedly be fun to watch. It's also hard to predict, but we like dos Anjos to win it via submission.

 

 

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