Sunday, January 13, 2013
Houston Texans at New England Patriots 4:30 PM ET
The Houston Texans were one of the early favorites to win the Super Bowl this season, but that talk slowed following the demolishing the team received on Dec. 10 when they traveled to New England and lost 42-14.
The Texans will try to erase the memory of that defeat as they travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots in the AFC Divisional round on Sunday.
New England has the highest-scoring offense in the NFL and was the second seed behind the Broncos in the playoffs with a 12-4 record. During the first matchup against the Texans, quarterback Tom Brady was fantastic, throwing for 296 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Patriots took a quick 21-0 lead over Houston in that game and never looked back, sending the team into a mini-slump to end the season, losing three of their final four regular-season games. The Patriots have won 10 of the past 11 games and has scored at least 23 points in each of those contests.
"We know that our effort and how we performed last time wouldn't give us a chance against anybody on the road," Houston coach Gary Kubiak said. "It's about right now refocusing on all the things we have to do to go down there and have a chance to be successful, and I'm sure that's what they're thinking about."
The Texans will have to put pressure on Brady to have a chance to win and All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt will the main focus for the New England offensive line. In the first game Brady was able to take advantage of Houston's blitz packages by audibling into different plays and took advantage of the middle of the field with wideout Wes Welker.
"I think you learn from it," said Brady. "You also understand things aren't going to be the same. They're going to see things that they're working on that are going to be different for us this time around. We do the same thing."
Watt has been one of the best defensive players in the league and is likely to win the player of the year award on his side of the ball. This season Watt was ranked first in the NFL with 20.5 sacks and also was one of the only players not a cornerback to be ranked in passes defensed. Watt has recorded 4.5 sacks in three career playoff games, but knows Brady can be hard to bring down.
"I mean, I got quite a few hits on Brady, but obviously the ball was gone every time," Watt said. "Didn't bat any balls, didn't have any tackles for a loss, so I need to do more."
The Patriots were ranked first in the NFL in scoring this season with 34 points per game and gained 427 yards per game, the most in the league. Brady will have both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez fully healthy and playing together for the first time since early in the season and also has options in Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead.
New England's running game has been more productive than in recent years, ranking seventh in the NFL in yards per game. Stevan Ridley has been excellent for the Patriots all season, rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Ridley hasn't rushed for 100-plus yards in five straight games and has a tough matchup against a Houston defense that is ranked seventh in the NFL.
Prediction: New England 35, Houston 17. This score likely won't be a huge blowout, but there is a chance that the Patriots will perform like they did a few weeks ago against the Texans. Brady and his team are more experienced in the playoffs and are nearly impossible to defeat at home. Welker is the perfect wideout to attack the Houston secondary and with both tight ends healthy for the first time this season, Brady will have too many options for the Texans to cover. The Patriots made Houston ordinary in their last matchup and New England usually does not lose to ordinary teams.
