New Year's Day 2013 College Football Predictions: Florida State Runs Over Northern Illinois In BCS Orange Bowl

Jan 01, 2013 02:25 PM EST
Florida State Seminoles' Louis Givens
Florida State Seminoles' Louis Givens celebrates during second half action of the Konica Minolta Gator Bowl against the West Virginia Mountaineers in Jacksonville, Florida, January 1, 2010."

The Northern Illinois Huskies played the part of BCS party crasher this year and will try to prove on Monday night that they belong with the big boys as they take on Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

The Huskies finished ranked 15th in the final BCS standings, giving them a chance to play in a BCS bowl for the very first time. Northern Illinois enters the matchup against the Seminoles on a school-record 12-game winning streak after taking home the Mid-American Conference championship for the second straight season.

"What a thrill for us," said Rod Carey, who was named head coach after serving as offensive coordinator under Dave Doeren, who decided to move on from the Huskies after accepting the opening for the North Carolina State job on Dec. 1.

The Huskies have won 21 of 22 games and are coming off of a 44-37 double overtime victory over Kent State in the MAC title game. The team opened the year with an 18-17 loss against Iowa, but has since won every game it has played, including a 31-24 win over Toledo and a 55-24 win over Central Michigan.

Although Northern Illinois played only one ranked team and were in a weaker conference than teams like Oklahoma, Clemson and Georgia that were left out, they made it to the BCS this year by playing the system and finishing ahead of champions from the automatic qualifying Big Ten and Big East.

"We're 12-1," quarterback Jordan Lynch said. "We faced tons of adversity this year. We won tons of games. ... We definitely deserve to be in there."

Lynch is the most dynamic player on an offense that is ranked 9th in the nation in scoring and gains nearly 500 total yards per game. The Huskies will have a tough test against Florida State, who gives up just 15 points per game, ranked seventh in the nation.

The junior has thrown for 2,962 yards and 24 touchdowns wit just five interceptions and is leading the team in rushing with 1,771 yards and 19 touchdowns. Lynch was stellar in the MAC title game against Kent State, scoring four total touchdowns and he has thrown for at least one touchdown in every game but one this season.

Lynch has rushed for 100 yards in 11 straight games and has scored 17 total touchdowns over his past five games. He had a season-high 407 passing yards against Toledo and has multi-rushing touchdowns in six different game. The Florida State defense will need to focus on Lynch to help slow down the high-scoring Huskies.

Wideout Martel Moore will be the top target for Lynch in the passing game after making a career-high 71 receptions for 1,054 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had just four catches in the finale against Kent State, but has scored four touchdowns over the past four games, including two in the win over Toledo.

The Huskies will be the underdog in the game, but as recent history shows, that could be in their favor. TCU defeated Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl two years ago, while Boise State defeated TCU in the Fiesta Bowl the previous season.

"Our team has earned this by going out and doing what they have to do on the field," Carey said. "It's going to be a challenge for us, we're going to have to do things right, and do what we do, and we feel like we'll have a good opportunity."

Florida State and head coach Jimbo Fisher will not take the Huskies lightly and know how dynamic the team can be on the offensive side of the ball.

"To me I don't agree with (the negativity)," Fisher said to the Associated Press. "It's disrespectful to Northern Illinois, and we definitely don't think that way. We know one thing, Northern Illinois is going to be ready to play when they get here and hopefully we'll be ready to play too."

The Seminoles defense will rely on All-American defensive end Bjoern Werner to help slow down Lynch and the offense. Werner has 13 sacks and18 tackles for loss for a defense that is allowing 253.4 total yards per game, ranked second in the nation.

"You're going to have to (stop him) as a group," Fisher said. "We're going to have to have a great team effort. We're going to have to be very sound in everything we do and we'll have to mix things up, give him multiple looks and do different things."

Unlike the Huskies, who have never made it to one of the big bowls, Florida State is making their seventh BCS bowl appearance, but the first since 2005 when they lost in overtime to Penn State in the Orange Bowl.

Florida State was ranked as high as third in the nation this season and had an eye on the national championship after starting 5-0, but lost 17-16 at N.C. State on Oct. 6. The team won its next five games in a row, including a 48-7 thrashing against Duke, before falling out of the BCS championship picture with a 37-26 loss to Florida on Nov. 24.

The Seminoles finished the year with a 21-15 win in the ACC championship against Georgia Tech, but will enter the Orange Bowl without defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, who was hired as coach at Kentucky late last month.

"You either want to play for a national championship or a BCS bowl," senior quarterback E.J. Manuel said. "You want to go out there and play well. This is huge."

Manuel has been the most dynamic player for the Seminoles this season, throwing for a career-high 3,101 yards and 22 touchdowns to go along with 284 rushing yards. The senior struggled in the championship game against Georgia Tech and had three interceptions in the loss against Florida.

The Seminoles are scoring nearly 40 points per game, but match up against a solid Northern Illinois defense that is ranked 18th in the nation with 19 points allowed per game. Florida State should be able to take advantage in the running game with sophomore James Wilder Jr. against a Huskies defense that allows nearly 140 yards per game.

Florida State averages over 200 yards on the ground and gains over 450 total yards per contest. The Seminoles scored over 40 points seven times this season, bit not since a 41-14 win over Maryland on Nov. 17.

PREDICTION: Florida State 34, Northern Illinois 13. The Seminoles are simply better than the Huskies. Northern Illinois has proved to be a great story this college football season, but their best win besides Kent State on the schedule is a victory over a 1-11 Kansas team. Jordan Lynch is the catalyst on the offense and Florida State will do a good job of forcing the ball out of his hands. Manuel is set for a big game in this one.

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