College Football Bowl Predictions: Texas Longhorns Fall To Oregon State As Beavers Sneak By In Alamo Bowl Showdown

Dec 29, 2012 12:23 PM EST

The quarterback position will be the biggest focus in the Valero Alamo Bowl from San Antonio on Saturday night, as both the Texas Longhorns and the Oregon State Beavers have had issues at the position this season.

The 15th-ranked Beavers have had problems due to injuries, while the 23rd-ranked Longhorns have dealt with inconsistent play and some controversy recently.

Oregon State enters the game following a win in the regular-season finale against Nicholls State and is 9-3 this season after winning just three games last year. The change is tied for the largest improvement in the FBS this season and a big improvement under head coach Mike Riley, who has gone 5-1 in bowl games.

"It was really just a combination of two very simple things, but not easy to accomplish obviously," said Riley to the Associated Press. "The fact that we had some good, young, talented players, and they had a very good offseason. They stayed together, worked out together, had great intentions. So just development and hard work put together I think were the key elements in getting better."

The Beavers are playing in their first bowl game since 2009 when they were defeated by BYU in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. Oregon State started 4-0 this season behind quarterback Sean Mannion, winning games against Wisconsin and UCLA before the sophomore was hurt and required knee surgery.

Oregon State then turned to Cody Vaz, who was solid for the Beavers before suffering an injury himself, giving the job back to Mannion. The sophomore had one of his best games of the season after getting the job back, throwing for 325 yards and four touchdowns in a 62-14 win over California.

Mannion will get the start on Saturday night and finished the year with 2,446 yards and 15 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. In the regular season finale he passed for 231 yards and two touchdowns, while Vaz also played and added 190 yards and three more scores in the 77-3 win over Nicholls State.

The two quarterbacks have helped the Beavers rebound from last year's disappointment to the 15th ranked passing team in the nation, with an average of 316 yards. The team is scoring 33 points per game and has been solid on the defensive side, ranking 22nd in the country with 19 points allowed per game.

The Longhorns' secondary will try to shut down the passing game for the Beavers by focusing on dynamic receivers Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks, who both gained over 1,000 yards this year through the air.

Wheaton has been one of the most impressive players for the Beavers, leading the team with 88 receptions for 1,207 yards and 11 touchdowns. In the final game against Nicholls State he caught 12 balls for 224 yards, beating the record of 222 that James Rodgers set last season.

"I looked up to James when I got here -- he was amazing," Wheaton said. "I knew he was as good as they get -- his work ethic, his dedication, and I really wanted to be just like him as far as what he did on the field. And breaking the record I feel like I have worked, all of the hard work paid off."

Although the Longhorns are 8-4 this year, many fans had much higher expectations for a team that was supposed to be competing for BCS championships.

Texas hasn't made a BCS bowl in three years and once again, head coach Mack Brown's future was called into question. University president Bill Powers wrote earlier this month that Brown has his "full support," but a loss on Saturday night could change that.

The team has gone 9-4 in the postseason under Brown, but are just 21-16 overall since being defeated by Alabama in the 2010 BCS championship game.

"I'm fortunate to be at a place where the standards are very high and we're going to fight to make sure we get back to those standards," Brown said.

Texas started out 4-0 this season with eyes on the BCS, but it was derailed by back-to-back losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma that saw the Longhorns allow a combined 119 points. The team then went on a four game winning streak to get to 8-2, but faded back after losing the final two games of the season to TCU and Kansas State.

The Longhorns have dealt with issues at quarterback all season and have gotten inconsistent play from both David Ash and Case McCoy. Brown will go with Ash for the game by choice, but it's now out of necessity as McCoy was suspended for the game for violating team rules.

Brown did not specify what rules the players broke, but Deadspin.com writes that there is a police report for sexual assault that accuses two University of Texas football players as the culprits. According to KENS-TV in San Antonio, the station quoted San Antonio police as saying that two Texas players were being investigated regarding sexual assault allegations.

Suspensions or not, the Longhorns will need to get much better play from Ash, who started the first 11 games of the season before being benched. This year Ash has thrown for 2,458 yards and 17 touchdowns with just seven interceptions while completing 67.7 percent of his passes.

"You look at some of the things David did this year and I think he's still in the top 10 in passing efficiency," Brown said. "When he started poorly, he had more trouble than when he started right but he had some great games and we need to build on those."

The Oregon State defense will be focusing hard on Ash and leading wide receiver Mike Davis, who has 54 catches for 909 yards and seven touchdowns this year. The Beavers have been excellent at forcing turnovers this year, making 19 interceptions, tied for sixth in the nation. Over the past two games, Texas has turned over the ball seven times and will need to have much better ball security to win on Saturday.

The Longhorns are ranked 24th in scoring this season with 36 points per game, but are giving up nearly 30 per contest to opponents. The team gave up 42 points in the finale against Kansas State and has allowed 40-plus points four times this year.

PREDICTION: Oregon State 28, Texas 27. The Beavers haven't won two games in a row in over two months, but this is the time to end a streak like that. Texas is already dealing with the quarterback situation and also is losing offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin to Arkansas State. The team and the fans are disappointed about playing in the Alamo Bowl and even though the game is in Texas, the Beavers still have an advantage. The Longhorns are giving up 213.5 yards per game through the air and will need to work hard to shut down a potent air attack from the Beavers. Oregon State and defensive back Jordan Poyer, who leads the team with seven interceptions, will try to keep Ash from making plays down the field, while sack leader Scott Crichton will keep tabs on the running game. If the Beaver defense slips, this one could go either way, but they have been solid against tough opponents this season, including Stanford and UCLA.

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