If any organization would like to add a home run hitter to their team, their first choice would probably be Chris Davis. If anybody asked fans to predict the winner of the 2013 Home Run Derby, they'd probably say Chris Davis, even if they rooted for the other seven competitors. However, as Home Run Derby history tells us, the home run leader at the break usually has a tough time winning the tournament. Here are predictions as the MLB's 2013 Home Run Derby will set off.
Davis leads all major leaguers with 37 home runs. Davis is the top dog in Las Vegas as the odds are 11/4 in his favor, immediately followed by Prince Fielder, the defending champ with 15/4 odds. Fielder wasn't the leading home run hitter when he won the competition last year, he had only hit 15 home runs when the Midsummer Classic came around. In fact, Fielder defeated the home run leader, Jose Bautista, who had 27 home runs at the break.
Wait, it gets even more interesting. Dating back to 1999, when MLB.com began storing All-Star break totals, the home run leader has never won the competition. Maybe the guys in Vegas overlooked this fact. Yes, Davis is probably on pace to become the "true" single-season home run champion, but when it comes to the Derby, the odds are against him.
The most improbable run at a Home Run Derby was performed by Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005. His team, the Detroit Tigers, hosted the event, justifying why Rodriguez, who had only hit six home runs at the break, was able to take part in a sluggers-only affair. Rodriguez didn't disappoint. He didn't win, but he was that year's runner-up whacking a total of 20 home runs in the tournament. He fell short to Bobby Abreu who finished the tournament by smacking 11 home runs, totaling 41 in the entire derby.
Rodriguez's performance came a year after Miguel Tejada, who was a power-hitter in terms of shortstops, won the 2004 Home Run Derby. Tejada went into that tournament with only 15 home runs, the second fewest only to Rafael Palmeiro who had 13. He finished off the tournament with a walk-off shot, beating Lance Berkman 5-4.
WHO WILL WIN?
Look for a guy with a a sweet, easy swing to take the tournament. Power is necessary, but the Derby is also about endurance. Surprisingly, Fielder has been able to win the tournament two times and he isn't the ideal player fans think about when discussing endurance, but the big man has shown he is reliable on an everyday basis and he can take mighty cuts without jeopardizing his chances to win.
Look for a guy like Bryce Harper, who has 13 home runs or Robinson Cano, who has hit 21 bombs, to take the title. I would consider Pedro Alvarez a sleeper only because he can have a pitcher locate the ball right where he wants it, preventing the free swinger from being fooled. Also, Alvarez will be performing in his hometown of New York City. Alvarez is an all or nothing type of player who is extremely streaky. If he gets in a groove before his 10 outs, he will be depositing plenty of souveniers in the bleachers at Citi Field tonight.
Predictions: Bryce Harper wins... Robinson Cano: Runner-up.... Sleeper: Pedro Alvarez
